BRISBANE house values are predicted to rise in the next 12 months between 5 per cent and 7.5 per cent, but unit values are tipped to take a dive.
The latest Capital Cities Market Outlook by analyst Michael Matusik puts the drop in unit values between 5 per cent and 2.5 per cent.
Mr Matusik said house price growth was being driven by supply and demand.
“So what you are seeing in Brisbane is an increase in the number of sales for detached housing and that has increased quite markedly in the last five years — nearly doubled — and that seems to be rising.
“Then you have got in concert with that, while it is not a rapid fall like in some other capital cities, you are seeing a decline in the number of houses listed for sale.’”
Mr Matusik said in 2010/2011 there was about 12 months supply of stock in the market, at the moment there was about six months worth.
“That doesn’t mean there is going to be rapid price growth,’’ he said.
“But demand is starting to outstrip supply for resale stock.’’
He thought that would be the case for the next 12 to 18 months.
As more owners think of cashing out of the Sydney market, Mr Matusik said buying in southeast Queensland would become more enticing.
“Brisbane’s demand will probably increase,’’ he said.
While the housing market was performing well Mr Matusik said the unit market was facing some issues.
“The problem with apartments is the opposite trend, sales are declining, supply — which isn’t as bad as many of the headlines would suggest — it is correcting itself.
“There is no doubt there is a lot of supply and it is going through a correction phase.
“Generally, for apartments particularly, it is going to be weak for a year or two, all the indications suggest that is the case.’’
Mr Matusik tipped the unit rental market to also take a dive with rents down by up to 10 per cent.
House rents he predicts will rise up by 2.5 per cent.
Mr Matusik said the Brisbane market was still in recovery but it was a “mild, spasmodic’’ one.
He said there had been a recovery in transactions but not in price or rental growth.
“Good affordability, with some migration and investor interest, now, from interstate, could see things improve,’’ he said.
“But the lack of local job growth and the new apartment overhang is dampening our forecast.’’
Source - Brisbane property analyst Michael Matusik